Free MLB home run picks, odds for May 3: Julio Rodriguez among best bets for Saturday HR player props
The Seattle Mariners racked up 13 runs in a win at Texas on Friday, led by a pair of home runs from catcher Cal Raleigh. He now has the solo lead for big-league home runs this season (12), sitting ahead of three players who have 10 each. Raleigh is +250 to go yard in the Saturday MLB home run odds at BetMGM, while Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is +210. Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani has seven homers this season, and he is also +250 to go yard against the Braves on Saturday night.
There are seven games starting after 6 p.m. ET, so there are plenty of players to evaluate for MLB home run bets during the Saturday MLB schedule. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. Now, the model has revealed its projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +14475 odds and would pay out $723.75 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Josh Naylor, Diamondbacks (+430)
Naylor had 31 home runs during the 2024 regular season and has four long balls through his first 31 games this season. He has not homered since going yard three straight games in mid-April, but he is riding a four-game hitting streak and has six total hits during that stretch. Naylor draws a favorable matchup against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who has allowed 11 earned runs in his last three starts and has given up six homers this season. The model likes Naylor’s chances of having a big outing against Nola, and FanDuel is offering the best price on a home run at +430.
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (+400)
Seattle is coming off one of its best offensive outings of the season, and Rodriguez contributed with a two-run home run in the sixth inning against Texas. He has now homered twice in his last five games and has seven total hits during that stretch. The 24-year-old has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games, but his slow start to the season is still weighing down his season-long numbers. This has created value on his odds to homer on Saturday, with the best price coming via FanDuel.
Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+450)
Chourio leads Milwaukee with six home runs this season, with his latest bomb coming against St. Louis last weekend. He is being overlooked in the home run market on Saturday after going hitless in his last three outings, but he had 21 homers last year and is on pace for a better output in 2025. Chourio is facing Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, who has allowed five homers this season. The model likes Chourio’s chances of recording a seventh home run on Saturday, especially when FanDuel is offering +450 odds.
More MLB picks for Saturday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on an 88-43 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 19-13 over his last 32 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Saturday.
